But that logic has been turned on its head in recent years, with four double-figure odds winners - Shamus Award at $21 last year, Pinker Pinker ($26 in 2011), So You Think ($13 in 2009) and Maldivian ($11 in 2008).

The last two favourites to win are two of the modern-day greats - So You Think at $1.50 for his second win in 2010 and Makybe Diva at $2 in 2005. Shamus Award made it three wins for three-year-olds in the past decade but this year's crop of Almalad, Sweynesse and Wandjina seem out of their depth.

Might And Power (1998) is the last horse to win a Cox Plate after winning the Caulfield Cup the previous year, a feat favourite Fawkner is out to emulate. For Fawkner fans, his last-start Caulfield Stakes win is a good pointer as Ocean Park (2012) and So You Think (2010) completed the double in recent years.

Barrier draws have proved crucial in recent years, with just one double figure barrier winner (Pinker Pinker from 11 in 2011) since Sunline won from alley 13 in 2000.

With gun colts of recent years such as All Too Hard, Pierro and Shamus Award whisked off to stud, and Atlantic Jewel and So You Think retired, the ranks of genuine weight-for- age stars is thin.

No internationally trained horse has won the race, with Adelaide poised to change that.

The son of Galileo is by far the best-credentialled international to compete since Godolphin's Grandera ran third to Northerly in 2002.

THE SATURDAY AGE RACING EXPERTS' QUADDIE

CRYSTAL MILE
Thin race with only two chances under the weight-for-age conditions - Speediness (1) and Trust InAGust (5). Speediness is genuine and ran second in this race last year, but the fact is he hasn't won in his past 12 starts since a win at Flemington in September last year. By contrast, Trust In A Gust is a winner.
My number: 5

VASE
Potentially tricky race with interstate visitors Duccio and Gouldian muddying the waters. Of the locals, Chivalry has the best form with a strong finishing fifth in the Caulfield Guineas. The only group 1 winner in the field is one of the fillies, Go Indy Go, who has the racing style to suggest she will relish the 2040m.
My numbers: 2,6, 10, 13

COX PLATE The Cleaner's presence takes out of the equation any discussion on the pace of the race - it's a given it will be hot. This is his ultimate test and it's hard to envisage him holding off some high-class closers such as Fawkner and Irish raider Adelaide. Stamina will count, so include Royal Descent and Criterion, who are group 1 2400m winners.
My numbers: 2, 8, 10, 11

ELIZA PARK STAKES
Two main chances, Tango's Daughter and Suavito. Preference for Tango's Daughter despite the weight penalty. She has the open company form and makes her own luck on pace; Suavito seems to find trouble.
My number: 2

For a $20 outlay you would receive 125 per cent of a $1 dividend.

Feature race markets

COX PLATE
Moonee Valley, Saturday
$5 Fawkner
$7.60 Adelaide
$7.80 Criterion, Sacred Falls
$12.50 Royal Descent
$13.50 Happy Trails
$19 The Cleaner, Silent Achiever
$21 Sweynesse
$30 Side Glance
$34 Almalad
$36 Foreteller, Wandjina
$95 Guest Of Honour

MOONEE VALLEY CUP
Moonee Valley, Saturday
$3.40 Opinion
$5.80 Precendence
$6 Au Revoir
$6.80 Le Roi
$9 Epingle
$10 Prince Of Penzance
$15 Mr O'Ceirin
$17 Albonetti
$34 Anudjawun
$100 Black Tycoon

VASE
Moonee Valley, Saturday
$5.60 Chivalry
$6.20 Atmosphere
$6.60 Go Indy Go
$7.20 Gouldian
$8.80 Moonovermanhattan
$9.40 Duccio
$9.60 Bondeiger
$15 San Padre
$24 Zululand
$30 Royal Standing
$55 Coram, Miss Interiors, Prentice
$65 It's Thyme

VRC DERBY
Flemington, November 1
$4 Hampton Court
$4.70 Preferment
$12.50 Atmosphere
$14.50 Bachman
$15.50 Magicool
$16 Bondeiger
$17 Nozomi
$18.50 Gouldian
$20 Light Up Manhattan
$22 Moonovermanhattan
$26 San Padre, Firehouse Rock
$34 Lotion
$40 Cuban Fighter
$55 Verreaux, Zululand
$60 Miracle The Second
$85 Turbo Street

MELBOURNE CUP
Flemington, November 4
$6 Admire Rakti
$8.80 Lucia Valentina
$9.80 Protectionist
$13.50 Mutual Regard
$14 Fawkner
$30 Red Cadeaux
$32 Who Shot Thebarman
$34 Cavalryman
$36 Willing Foe
$44 Brambles
$50 Caravan Rolls On
$55 Royal Diamond
$60 Opinion, Seismos
$65+ others
Odds: Betfair

MOONEE VALLEY LATE SCRATCHINGS

Race 1
10 PEARL STAR

Race 2
3 ESPRIT DE BULLET

Race 4
7 ALCOBRO

Race 7
14 MISS INTERIORS