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NEW YORK: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin has warned more civilian airliners could be shot out of the sky and international law will be "impotent" if the perpetrators of the Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 tragedy are not brought to justice.
On the eve of a UN Security Council vote, due on Thursday morning Australian time, a resolution proposed by Malaysia and backed by Australia, the Netherlands, Ukraine and other countries to establish an international criminal tribunal into the crash was headed towards defeat.
Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop, Dutch Foreign Minister Bert Koenders and Mr Klimkin as well as the Belgian and Malaysian UN representatives met in New York on Tuesday night after another a day of intense lobbying.
Publicly the trio were "cautiously optimistic" a vote would succeed, with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to appeal directly to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ms Bishop to meet UN chief Ban Ki-moon in the hours before the vote.
For a UN Security Council resolution to pass, nine of 15 votes are required. But as one of the permanent five members of the Security Council, Russia has a permanent right - along with the US, UK, China and France - to veto resolutions
Mr Klimkin told Fairfax Media that if a tribunal was not established – and justice not achieved for the families of the dead – it would "absolutely" increase the risk of further attacks, with impunity, by non-state actors around the world.
"The Russians have been waging what is normally called hybrid war against Ukraine, and because of the development of technology it could play out everywhere," he said.
"We need to get across a very clear sign that we are ready to counter such acts, both politically and legally."
"If we don't set up this tribunal we would get across the message that anyone who could be behind any kind of similar tragedy would go unpunished and it would give the most terrible message, not just for Ukraine, for Australia, for the Netherlands but for the international community, because the international community will be impotent to deliver in such cases."
For the five-nation joint investigation team - Australia, Netherlands, Ukraine, Malaysia and Belgium - that will produce a report into the crash in the coming months, the push for a tribunal "is about our moral duty to bring the perpetrators to justice", Mr Klimkin said.
The proposed tribunal would begin work once the investigation team finish investigating the downing of the plane later this year.
Earlier, Ms Bishop met Russia's UN representative Vitaly Churkin for an hour to make a last ditch appeal for Moscow to abstain and allow the motion to pass. During the meeting she told him Russia should "save your vetos for something that is in Russia's national interest. This is not".
The Australian Foreign Affairs Minister warned Russia that "there were other options available to us but we are seeking the third element of resolution 2166 - first recover the bodies, second a [criminal] investigation, third, hold those responsible to account".
"A veto would be an affront to the families and the 298 passengers and crew aboard MH17 who died."
A veto by Russia would effectively mean the Russian-backed rebels suspected of shooting down MH17, killing 298 people, including 39 Australians, would escape justice – at least in the short term.
And Russian opposition has hardened in recent weeks, amid growing evidence Russian backed rebels shot down MH17.
Mr Churkin told Russian news agency Tass on Tuesday that "we will vote against [establishing the tribunal]. I have no doubt about that. If the resolution enrols nine or more votes, we will veto it".
He argued the resolution would "create another hot spot of confrontation that might have far-reaching impacts on international relations".
