The price growth party is officially over in three of Canberra's most expensive suburbs in what could be a sign of what's to come for the rest of the capital's property market.
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Canberra house prices have continued to rise broadly in 2022 but a downward trend is beginning to emerge in some suburbs.
Ainslie, Dickson and Watson - all in Canberra's north - have been identified by CoreLogic as underperforming suburbs, recording the lowest quarterly change in value growth for the three months to April.
These "micro-market trends" that are emerging in Australia's capital cities coincide with higher interest rates, rising stock levels in some areas and a limit to how much buyers are willing to spend, CoreLogic's latest report suggests.
But declining house values don't necessarily equate to affordability.
CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said most of the areas identified started the quarter with a median well in excess of the broader region.
"We are seeing this trend more broadly, where the upper quartile of the market has softened out more visibly than the middle to lower end of the market," he said.
"These softer conditions come after a stronger performance across the premium end of the market through the growth phase.
"Historically more expensive housing markets tend to lead the upswing, but also lead the downturn, which is what we seem to be seeing at the moment."
Ainslie
In Ainslie, where the median house value is $1,583,483, house prices fell 3.4 per cent over the three-month period, representing a quarterly decrease of $56,143.
The decline is off the back of 14.2 per cent growth for the year to April.
Listings are currently low in Ainslie, with just a handful of houses on the market ranging from $1,375,000 to more than $1.5 million.
On the top end of the market, 17 Piper Street is listed with a price guide of $1.56 million-plus and features four bedrooms, one bathroom and two car spaces.
Dickson
Dickson, which has a $1,236,645 median house value, saw values fall 3 per cent, or by $38,815, for the quarter.
In the 12 months to April, Dickson house values grew 7.8 per cent.
There are around five houses for sale in Dickson at the moment, with many under offer. Listed with a price guide of $925,000 and now under offer, 110 Cowper Street is a three-bedroom duplex described as a "doer-upper".
Watson
With a median of $1,210,911, Watson reported a 2.2 per cent fall in house values, representing a median loss of $27,546.
The decline follows significant property value growth in Watson. House values in the suburb rose 23.3 per cent for the year to April, representing growth of $228,725.
Among the current listings in Watson is a three-bedroom house on 649 square metres of land. The leafy property at 20 Windeyer Street is listed with a price guide of $950,000-plus.
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Over the same three-month period, house prices across the entire ACT region rose 2.5 per cent.
CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen said it has long been observed that expensive, more-leveraged suburbs were more sensitive to changes in credit conditions in a downturn.
"Higher income households tend to hold more housing debt to income, so do property investors," Ms Owen said.
"That's why the high end of the market can often be more sensitive to changes in interest rates or credit conditions, but this can also affect some other popular investment markets like inner city areas."
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