Treasury has begun its secretive process to find the next tax commissioner, with internal candidates shaping up well amid intensifying scrutiny of the private sector.
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Commissioner Chris Jordan last month announced he would retire at the end of his term in February 2024, closing out back-to-back stints in the top job over the past decade.
In a speech to staff in July, the commissioner said he would be keeping his "foot on the pedal over the next seven months".
But the search for the next tax boss is already under way, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers asking his department to begin the merit-based selection process immediately.
Looking internally, Australian Services Union tax branch secretary Jeff Lapidos named two second commissioners as likely contenders for the top job.
Second commissioner Jeremy Hirschhorn is considered a favourite for the top job in tax circles, thought by many in the agency to be "very talented and personable", Mr Lapidos said.
Mr Hirschhorn joined the Tax Office in 2014 after nearly 20 years at Big Four consulting firm KPMG.
But Law Design and Practice Group second commissioner Kirsten Fish could emerge as an underdog in the race to the top.
"I would describe Kirsten as a quiet achiever, so she has not really made the headlines in the external media at all," Mr Lapidos said.
Ms Fish, who was previously a tax partner at Clayton Utz, would be the first female tax commissioner in the ATO's history if appointed.
The search for the next boss won't be limited to internal candidates, but the complexity of the Tax Office and the current climate around consultants makes it likely the government could tap someone from within to step up.
"There could be people outside that might meet the eligibility requirements," Mr Lapidos said.
"The problem is the ATO is such a large, complex organisation, it is difficult for anyone from outside, coming up, getting up to speed."
Those in the industry have also speculated whether David Bradbury, a former assistant treasurer in the Gillard government, could be considered.
Mr Bradbury is now deputy director at the OECD's Centre for Tax Policy and Administration.
A return to tradition
Former Labor treasurer Wayne Swan broke with tradition when he first appointed Mr Jordan to the role in 2012.
The current commissioner's 25 years at Big Four firm KPMG set him apart from predecessors who had risen through the ranks of the Tax Office.
It prompted "hysteria" from critics, University of Western Australia Professor of taxation law and policy Rick Krever said.
Questions swirled over whether Mr Jordan would be able to pursue tax avoidance in the private sector with the same vigour as his predecessor Michael D'Ascenzo, a 35-year veteran of the Tax Office.
"As it turned out, once the commissioner became commissioner, and left his role for Big Four, he could start going after the big corporations the same way that his predecessors had done," Prof Krever said.
"So he did seem to be able to make that shift over in a way that critics certainly, at the time, said he would never do."
But a return to tradition could be likely, as hiring from any of the Big Four consultancies "becomes a lot more difficult", Prof Krever said, referring to PricewaterhouseCooper's tax leak scandal.
"One is seriously tainted, but all of them have been tainted a little bit by recent scandals," he said.
"You can see from the government's perspective, they'd be a little more nervous about it this time, because it could turn out that somebody they've appointed, down the road, something's revealed.
"So it might be a safer route to appoint internally."
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Selecting an internal candidate would not necessarily rule out private sector know-how, though, given all three of the ATO's deputy commissioners have years of corporate experience.
But until the Treasurer announces Mr Jordan's successor, it is likely to remain "the best kept secret in Canberra".
"You can bet, like last time, until the ... Treasurer makes his announcement, it'll be the best kept secret in Canberra because they don't want it to leak out at all," Prof Krever said.
"And you can bet also, they're doing every bit of vetting possible for the candidate, because the government never wants the embarrassment of picking somebody that's later implicated in some problem."
A spokesperson for Treasury said "the government is undertaking an open and transparent process to select the next ATO commissioner".
"Appointments of the ATO commissioner are made by the Governor-General (as per the Taxation Administration Act 1953) on the advice of the government.
"The appointment of the next commissioner is scheduled to be made before the current commissioner's term expires early next year."
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